The State of NSW Politics.

NSW Politics

The NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) will hold further public inquiries into what is codenamed 'Operation Keppel'. In particular, ICAC is inquiring into whether the NSW Premier:
  • Engaged in a breach of trust through a conflict of interest, being the relationship with former MP Daryl Maguire regarding grants for the Australian Clay Target Association and the Riverina Conservatorium of Music.
  • Failed to report suspected corrupt conduct, being concerns relating to Daryl Maguire, to ICAC as required.
  • Either allowed or encouraged corrupt conduct by Maguire.
Consequently, the NSW Premier has resigned both as Premier and as the member for Willoughby. Those resignations do not take effect immediately. This article makes no assertions or assumptions regarding whether there has been corrupt conduct by either the Premier or Mr Maquire.

The Premier's resignation upon notice by ICAC of a public inquiry, preliminary to any finding, has again raised issues of the appropriateness of the current ICAC processes and the presumption of innocence. An additional unknown is whether the ICAC inquiries may lead to the resignation of any other members of parliament.

Subsequent to the Premier's resignation, Andrew Constance and John Barilaro both resigned. This potentially has consequences for the NSW government which is currently a minority government. The three electorates involved are Willoughby, Bega and Monaro. Willoughby was 71% two-party preferred (2pp), Bega was 57% and Monaro was 60%. There would need to be significant swings against the government for it to lose any of these seats. The history of pandemic elections seems to suggest that a swing against the incumbent is unlikely, although the unknown is the impact on LNP voters of mandatory vaccination and other restrictions on freedoms under the COVID Plans.

Even if the government lost all three seats (unlikely), it would reduce its parliamentary numbers from 46 to 43. ALP/Greens have 39. The rest of the crossbench have 8 being constituted of 3 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and 5 independents. There are 93 seats, requiring 47 to hold a majority. Consequently, in this unlikely scenario, the LNP would need 4 of the 8 SFF/Independents to guarantee supply and confidence for the LNP to retain government.

At this stage, it looks like Dominic Perrottet is likely to be the next Premier of NSW to be selected at a party meeting on Tuesday. The National Party will also need to select a new leader. Once the leadership of the two parties are selected, there will necessarily be a cabinet reshuffle.


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